Editors' Choice paper of the second quarter of 2024
A research study, which predicts that by 2080 Namibia's major vegetation units are to significantly expand southward, while other zonal vegetation types might go extinct, was awarded the Editors’ Choice recognition at the Vegetation Classification and Survey (VCS) journal for the second quarter of 2024.
In their work, the researchers from the Namibia University of Science and Technology demonstrate an ability to classify and predict vegetation units to future climatic conditions.
The paper, titled “Potential distribution of major plant units under climate change scenarios along an aridity gradient in Namibia” is authored by the team of Leena Naftal, Prof. Vera De Cauwer and Prof Ben Strohbach. The contribution is part of the VCS special collection: “African vegetation studies”, published in collaboration with the African Regional Section of the International Association for Vegetation Science (IAVS).
Why did the journal's Chief Editors choose this particular paper?
“Leena Naftal and colleagues developed a numerical high-level classification of the (near) natural vegetation along a 1,400 km long and 30 km wide transect in Namibia based on nearly 2,000 plots of 1,000 m2. They described the vegetation units and determined their diagnostic species,” explain the Chief editors on the Vegetation Science Blog, the official blog of the IAVS journals.
“This alone would be a fantastic achievement in Africa, where modern broadscale vegetation classifications are very scarce. However, the authors did not stop at that point, but then used random forests to model the current distribution of these zonal vegetation types and project them into the future under different global change scenarios.”
“They found that likely the Combretum collinum-Terminalia seriacea broad-leaved savannas will expand a lot, while several other zonal vegetation types might go extinct by 2080 under high CO2 emission paths.”
“We, Chief editors, find that this is a well conducted study based on an enormous wealth of data that demonstrates how vegetation classification can contribute substantially to global change research.”
Cover image: Typical representation of a vegetation unit. Combretum collinum-Terminalia sericea broad-leafed savanna. Photo credit: Leena Naftal.
Featured image: Modelled current and future distribution of zonal vegetation types along a 1400 km transect in Namibia. Credit: Naftal et al. (2024).
To follow the latest publications, news and highlights from VCS, we invite you to subscribe for the journal’s newsletter by using the Email alert field on this website’s homepage, and follow the journal on Twitter and Facebook.